Commentary: No Panic In Late Model Car Counts....Yet

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It seems to happen at some point almost every couple of years for some reason. You come to the realization that the weekly show you just attended had about five less cars than it had the year before. At first, you think nothing of it. I mean really, people do have lives, they take vacations and their children graduate and things like that. ‘It’ll get better next week.’ You start to think to yourself.  But it doesn’t. And then your mind begins to race with thoughts of the things that might be hampering the sport. Maybe it’s a case of too many rules. Maybe it’s a case of costs that have skyrocketed on top of stagnating purses perhaps? One more week of watching 10 or less cars in a feature passes, and then you finally start to hit the panic button and you say to yourself ‘This is it, it’s the end of weekly Super Late Model racing as we know it.’

Do not panic. It isn’t. But don’t be fooled, there’s an adjustment coming and I’m not sure I have an idea of what shape it takes, but it seems likely to be coming.

So what did happen to all the cars at the weekly show level? First off, the decline in numbers is not happening in every geography or at every track. Odds are the answer to what happened is contained a large mix of reasons, it never seems to be just one thing.  You could go with the costs/purses debate and make yourself dizzy. But remember this, nobody at the weekly level ever built the car to make a killing in racing. Only a fool would do such a thing. But the costs, which trickle up from every chassis maker, engine builder, shock manufacturer and bolt on part supplier (hey, we didn’t even mention tires yet), are probably coming to the top limit of reasonably affordable for the weekly driver. And yes, they’ve forced a good many of your weekly drivers out of the sport. Drivers don’t always feel like they have to win. But they want to at least be competitive. So they’ll spend what they have to in order to do so.

So what did your weekly driver do to mitigate costs? Well, many of them simply skip the weekly tracks and head for the specials anymore, and there’s another part of the problem.  There’s simply too many series in close proximity to maintain healthy weekly car counts in many cases. I don’t have to name them, most of you know them. They used to schedule eight to 10 races a year, four of those taking place outside of the regular weekly season. Now a good many of those regional series run more shows than that and have bonuses and show up money for a certain number of drivers. If you’re a driver, why wouldn’t you drive an extra hour to recoup your diesel and make some extra dollars, plus a chance at a better point fund?

And then another factor that you’ve probably been noticing too comes into play, and if you hadn't noticed...it's because you've been living under a rock. The cars are so expensive that drivers aren’t taking them out of the haulers as much, and they’re forsaking tracks that they feel might cause injury to the car either from other drivers, poor surfaces, or dangerous conditions or just don't perform well at against the level of competitors.  Quite literally, we’ve reached an era where some local drivers hit the track 10 or less times a year by choice, not by weather or attrition.

There’s not much we can do as fans there. It’s their money and drivers spend it as they see fit. And don’t go blaming your tracks for not paying $3,000 to win purses every week. You can be pretty sure if your track tried it, they’d probably be closed in rather quick fashion unless the front and back gate patrons agreed to pay quite a bit more.

Pat Miller Photo

So how does the lack of cars at the weekly level correct itself? I'm not sure I have an answer, but it won’t be just one thing that brings car counts back. It’ll be when the chassis, parts and components manufacturers feel the economic pressures mount perhaps. The fallout of a smaller pool of drivers and teams purchasing speed at the current rate. It’ll be the day when they realize that sales from national touring and uber regional drivers won’t keep all their employees employed at the same level and that they need a different strategy to get the revenue from the weekly drivers.

Businesses adjust, they make changes....or go out of business.

It’ll be the day when tracks will be forced to work more closely together to make better opportunities and get a better understanding of what drivers need to make weekly racing more tempting, so their mainstays don’t run every single regional tour event on the calendar every weekend. Add all that to some better decisions from tire companies and some promoter ingenuity and you’ll probably see a return to a level you were used to seeing. I’m not saying how long that will take, or even how long that will last, but the odds are good it happens sooner rather than later. One thing is for certain, it won't be easy.  In the meantime, keep the faith.